5K to 10K Race Equivalency
Your 5K time measures aerobic capacity and VO2max-level performance. This table shows what that capacity predicts for the 10K — a distance that demands more sustained threshold stamina but shares the same aerobic engine. Use this for goal-setting when you have a recent 5K result and are targeting a 10K.
Quick answer: A 22:00 5K runner (RPI 44.5) has equivalent 10K fitness of 45:40 (7:21/mi). Range in this table: 16:00 5K → 33:13 10K through 35:00 → 1:12:49.
5K → 10K Equivalency Table
| 5K Time | RPI | 10K Equivalent | Equiv Pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | 64.6 | 33:13 | 5:21/mi(3:19/km) |
| 17:00 | 60.2 | 35:16 | 5:41/mi(3:32/km) |
| 18:00 | 56.3 | 37:20 | 6:00/mi(3:44/km) |
| 19:00 | 52.9 | 39:23 | 6:20/mi(3:56/km) |
| 20:00 | 49.8 | 41:28 | 6:40/mi(4:09/km) |
| 21:00 | 47 | 43:35 | 7:01/mi(4:22/km) |
| 22:00 | 44.5 | 45:40 | 7:21/mi(4:34/km) |
| 24:00 | 40.2 | 49:48 | 8:01/mi(4:59/km) |
| 26:00 | 36.6 | 53:57 | 8:41/mi(5:24/km) |
| 28:00 | 33.5 | 58:09 | 9:21/mi(5:49/km) |
| 30:00 | 30.8 | 1:02:26 | 10:03/mi(6:15/km) |
| 35:00 | 25.6 | 1:12:49 | 11:43/mi(7:17/km) |
Computed via Daniels/Gilbert oxygen cost equation (1979). Predictions assume distance-specific training is in place.
How accurate is this prediction?
The 5K → 10K prediction is reliable for runners who train for both distances with threshold work. The primary divergence: runners whose training emphasizes interval work (5K-specific) over tempo runs (10K-specific) may underperform their 10K equivalent by 1–3 minutes. Adding weekly threshold sessions closes this gap.
Equivalency predicts potential — training determines actuals
This table shows what your aerobic capacity predicts at a different distance. StrideIQ tracks whether your training is actually developing the distance-specific fitness needed to meet that potential — long-run adaptation, pacing control, threshold stamina — from your own workout data.
Common questions
How accurate is 5K to 10K prediction?
Accurate for runners who train both quality types (interval + threshold). The 5K and 10K share similar aerobic demands, but the 10K requires more sustained threshold stamina. Most consistently trained runners land within 2 minutes of the prediction.
What 10K does a 20:00 5K predict?
A 20:00 5K (RPI 49.8) projects to a 41:28 10K at 6:40/mi. Adding threshold work to your training bridges any gap between your 5K and 10K fitness.
What training develops 10K fitness from 5K fitness?
Add weekly threshold tempo runs (20–30 minutes at threshold pace) to 5K-focused interval training. This converts raw aerobic capacity into the sustained threshold stamina the 10K demands.