Mile to 10K Race Equivalency
This table shows what your mile time predicts for the 10K — the equivalent time that the same aerobic capacity would support at 6.2 miles, assuming threshold-specific preparation. The 10K demands substantially more threshold stamina than the mile; raw speed transfers differently than aerobic capacity.
Quick answer: A 5:30 Mile runner (RPI 53.4) has equivalent 10K fitness of 39:04 (6:17/mi). Range in this table: 4:00 Mile → 28:46 10K through 8:00 → 55:54.
Mile → 10K Equivalency Table
| Mile Time | RPI | 10K Equivalent | Equiv Pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 | 76.5 | 28:46 | 4:38/mi(2:53/km) |
| 4:15 | 71.4 | 30:30 | 4:55/mi(3:03/km) |
| 4:30 | 66.9 | 32:14 | 5:11/mi(3:13/km) |
| 4:45 | 62.9 | 33:58 | 5:28/mi(3:24/km) |
| 5:00 | 59.4 | 35:40 | 5:44/mi(3:34/km) |
| 5:15 | 56.2 | 37:24 | 6:01/mi(3:44/km) |
| 5:30 | 53.4 | 39:04 | 6:17/mi(3:54/km) |
| 5:45 | 50.8 | 40:46 | 6:34/mi(4:05/km) |
| 6:00 | 48.4 | 42:29 | 6:50/mi(4:15/km) |
| 6:30 | 44.3 | 45:50 | 7:23/mi(4:35/km) |
| 7:00 | 40.7 | 49:17 | 7:56/mi(4:56/km) |
| 8:00 | 35.1 | 55:54 | 9:00/mi(5:36/km) |
Computed via Daniels/Gilbert oxygen cost equation (1979). Predictions assume distance-specific training is in place.
How accurate is this prediction?
Mile → 10K predictions have more divergence than shorter-to-longer predictions because the 10K demands prolonged threshold running that mile specialists often lack. Runners who specifically train threshold work (20–30 minute tempo runs) tend to match their mile-to-10K equivalency closely. Mile specialists who lack threshold training may underperform by 2–5 minutes.
Equivalency predicts potential — training determines actuals
This table shows what your aerobic capacity predicts at a different distance. StrideIQ tracks whether your training is actually developing the distance-specific fitness needed to meet that potential — long-run adaptation, pacing control, threshold stamina — from your own workout data.
Common questions
How accurate is mile to 10K prediction?
Less accurate than mile-to-5K because the 10K demands sustained threshold effort for 32–60+ minutes — a quality that mile training does not fully develop. Runners who add regular tempo runs to their mile training close most of this gap.
What 10K does a 5:00 mile predict?
A 5:00 mile (RPI 59.4) projects to a 35:40 10K at 5:44/mi. This assumes threshold-specific training beyond mile preparation.
Why does the 10K demand different training than the mile?
The mile is run at near-maximum aerobic output for 4–8 minutes. The 10K is run near the lactate threshold for 32–65+ minutes — a fundamentally different energy system demand. Converting mile fitness to 10K performance requires adding sustained threshold work (tempo runs) that mile training alone does not develop.