Mile to Marathon Race Equivalency
This table shows what your mile time predicts for the marathon — a projection that reflects aerobic potential, not marathon readiness. The marathon demands glycogen economy, long-run adaptation, and pacing experience that a mile performance cannot measure. Use this as a ceiling, not a guarantee.
Quick answer: A 5:30 Mile runner (RPI 53.4) has equivalent Marathon fitness of 3:00:21 (6:53/mi). Range in this table: 4:00 Mile → 2:12:43 Marathon through 8:00 → 4:15:31.
Mile → Marathon Equivalency Table
| Mile Time | RPI | Marathon Equivalent | Equiv Pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 | 76.5 | 2:12:43 | 5:04/mi(3:09/km) |
| 4:15 | 71.4 | 2:20:49 | 5:22/mi(3:20/km) |
| 4:30 | 66.9 | 2:28:53 | 5:41/mi(3:32/km) |
| 4:45 | 62.9 | 2:36:55 | 5:59/mi(3:43/km) |
| 5:00 | 59.4 | 2:44:48 | 6:17/mi(3:54/km) |
| 5:15 | 56.2 | 2:52:43 | 6:35/mi(4:05/km) |
| 5:30 | 53.4 | 3:00:21 | 6:53/mi(4:17/km) |
| 5:45 | 50.8 | 3:08:08 | 7:11/mi(4:28/km) |
| 6:00 | 48.4 | 3:15:55 | 7:28/mi(4:38/km) |
| 6:30 | 44.3 | 3:30:59 | 8:03/mi(5:00/km) |
| 7:00 | 40.7 | 3:46:21 | 8:38/mi(5:22/km) |
| 8:00 | 35.1 | 4:15:31 | 9:45/mi(6:04/km) |
Computed via Daniels/Gilbert oxygen cost equation (1979). Predictions assume distance-specific training is in place.
How accurate is this prediction?
Mile → marathon predictions have the largest divergence of any distance pair. Without 20-mile long runs, marathon-pace work, and sustained high-volume training, most mile specialists underperform their marathon equivalent by 30–60+ minutes. This table shows aerobic potential — realizing it requires complete marathon-specific preparation over 18–24+ weeks.
Equivalency predicts potential — training determines actuals
This table shows what your aerobic capacity predicts at a different distance. StrideIQ tracks whether your training is actually developing the distance-specific fitness needed to meet that potential — long-run adaptation, pacing control, threshold stamina — from your own workout data.
Common questions
How reliable is mile to marathon equivalency?
Use this as a potential ceiling, not a race prediction. The marathon demands distance-specific adaptations — glycogen economy, long-run fitness, pacing experience, heat management — that a mile performance cannot reflect. Runners with full marathon training typically perform 10–30 minutes over their mile equivalency without this preparation.
What marathon does a 5:00 mile predict?
A 5:00 mile (RPI 59.4) projects to 2:44:48 marathon potential. This is an aerobic ceiling that requires 20-mile long runs and sustained marathon-pace work to realize.
What marathon training does a miler need?
A complete marathon build: 18–20 week program, long runs building to 20–22 miles, weekly threshold work, marathon-pace segments in long runs (final 4–6 miles at goal pace), and weekly mileage of 50–80+ miles. The aerobic engine from mile training is excellent; the specific endurance requires dedicated marathon preparation.